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December 11, 2023

Q3 Trust Earnings

Quarterly reports from Q3 came out last month and we can now look back and calculate how much each SPAC earned during that time.
  • The data is a couple months old, but it's still useful for forecasting future trust account earnings.
Most SPACs remain invested in money-market funds containing a ladder of Treasurys with a maturity of 185 days or less.
  • You can see below that the 3-month Treasury yield averaged roughly 550 basis points during Q3 2023.
  • Short-term rates have been relatively stable around that level for months.
A trust account invested at a 5.5% interest rate would accrue at a rate of just under 1.4% per quarter.

Below we made a scatter plot of trust earnings during Q3 for SPACs whose share count remained static during the quarter. The results exclude the impact of any sponsor contributions to trust.
  • Many SPACs earned almost exactly 1.375% during Q3.
There's a meaningful concentration of data points around 1.375%, but many SPACs underperformed.
  • Smaller SPACs have an outsized chance of producing atypical trust earnings.
  • For a variety of reasons, it's more challenging to forecast trust estimates as the public float shrinks.
It's also worth noticing there isn't a huge difference between trusts that are "fully invested" vs. those that have communicated they are "in cash."
  • Trusts in cash experienced a very small underperformance.
  • As a result, we're adjusting our trust model again to bring the two types of estimates closer to parity.
News From the Past Week

Deal News

  • Zalatoris II Acquisition Corp (ZLS) announced a deal to acquire Ascotway, operating as Eco Modular, a sustainable modular building company. The deal reflects an enterprise value of $600mm and is expected to close in Q1 2024.

  • TMT Acquisition Corp (TMTC) announced a deal to acquire eLong Power Holding Limited, a provider of high power battery technologies for commercial and specialty vehicles and energy storage systems. The deal includes $450mm in stock consideration and is expected to close in 1H 2024.

  • Achari Ventures Holdings Corp. I (AVHI) announced a deal to acquire Vaso (OTCQX:VASO), a diversified medical technology company. The deal reflects an equity value of $176mm and is expected to close in Q1 2024.

  • RCF Acquisition Corp. (RCFA) announced a deal to acquire Blue Gold Holdings Limited, a newly formed company with the intent to acquire Tier-1 gold mining assets. The deal includes $115mm in stock consideration and is expected to close in Q2 2024.

Deal Closings & Approvals

  • 10X Capital Venture Acquisition Corp. II (formerly VCXA) closed its acquisition of African Agriculture on Wednesday 12/6/2023 with 1% of public shares remaining. Ordinary shares and warrants are now trading on the NASDAQ as “AAGR” and “AAGRW.”

  • Mobiv Acquisition Corp (formerly MOBV) closed its acquisition of Srivaru on Friday 12/8/2023 with 1% of public shares remaining. Ordinary shares and warrants are set to begin trading on the NASDAQ as “SVMH” and “SVHMW” Monday 11/11/2023.

  • PROOF Acquisition Corp I (formerly PACI) closed its acquisition of Volato on Monday 12/4/2023 with 6% of public shares remaining. Ordinary shares and warrants are now trading on the NYSE as “SOAR” and “SOAR/W.”

  • Dune Acquisition Corporation (DUNE) shareholders approved the company’s acquisition of Global Hydrogen Energy at a meeting Monday 12/4/2023. Redemption statistics were not provided and no closing timeline was given.

  • Clean Earth Acquisitions Corp. (CLIN) shareholders approved the company’s acquisition of Alternus Energy Group at a meeting Monday 12/4/2023 with less than 1% of public shares remaining. No closing timeline was given.

  • EF Hutton Acquisition Corporation I (EFHT) shareholders approved the company’s acquisition of E.C.D. Auto Design at a meeting Thursday 12/7/2023. Redemption statistics were not provided and no closing timeline was given.

Other Deal News & Rumors

  • Bloomberg reported that Rigel Resource Acquisition Corp. (RRAC) is in talks with South African gold miner Blyvooruitzicht Mining.

IPOs
Name Ticker Raised ($mm) Sector Cash in Trust Coverage
Aimei Health Technology AFJK 60 Healthcare 101.0% R

New S-1's
Name Ticker Size ($mm) Underwriter Trust Funding Coverage
Blue Room IBLU 200 Maxim 102.0% W+R
Legato Merger III LEGT 175 BTIG 100.0% W/2
FG Merger III Corp * 150 ThinkEquity 100.00% W/2
TechyBird Acq TKBD 60 Spartan 100.5% R


Liquidations
Name Ticker Size ($mm) Announced Liq. Date Trust Per Share
InterPrivate III Financial IPVF 259 12/6/2023 12/11/2023 $10.75
Thunder Bridge Capital III TBCP 414 12/8/2023 12/12/2023 $10.22
Khosla Ventures I KVSA 345 12/5/2023 12/12/2023 $10.75
Acropolis Infrastructure ACRO 345 12/4/2023 12/19/2023 $10.49
Black Mountain BMAC 276 12/6/2023 12/20/2023 TBD

Registrations Withdrawn
Name Ticker Size ($mm) Underwriter Trust Funding Coverage
CE Energy CEAC 100 Maxim 102.0% W
Aquarius II AQUB 60 EF Hutton 101.5% W+R

Charter Extensions

  • ROCL extended its charter through 12/3/2023 with a monthly $45,000 ($0.028 per share) sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 14% of public shares remain, representing $17mm in trust.
  • GLLI extended its charter through 12/9/2024 with a monthly $60,000 ($0.023 per share) sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 22% of public shares remain, representing $28mm in trust.
  • WINV extended its charter through 6/17/2024 with a monthly $55,000 ($0.048 per share) sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 10% of public shares remain, representing $12mm in trust.
  • OXUS extended its charter through 6/8/2024 with a monthly $0.025 per share sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 11% of public shares remain, representing $22mm in trust.
  • CNGL extended its charter through 12/2/2024 with a monthly $0.045 per share sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 5% of public shares remain, representing $12mm in trust.
  • PGSS extended its charter through 4/30/2024 with a monthly $0.03 per share sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 20% of public shares remain, representing $50mm in trust.
  • IVCB extended its charter through 6/17/2024 with a monthly $150,000 ($0.013 per share) sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 33% of public shares remain, representing $127mm in trust.
  • DHCA extended its charter through 5/4/2024 with no sponsor contribution to trust. Approximately 7% of public shares remain, representing $22mm in trust.

Upcoming Meetings and Deadlines

  • 12/11/2023 WEL Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/13/2023)
  • 12/11/2023 ALTU Liquidation deadline
  • 12/11/2023 IXAQ Charter extension meeting
  • 12/11/2023 BRKH Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/15/2023)
  • 12/11/2023 VII Banzai approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/28/2023)
  • 12/11/2023 LBBB Liquidation deadline
  • 12/12/2023 GAMC Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/19/2023)
  • 12/12/2023 NUBI Honeycomb Battery Company approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/15/2023)
  • 12/12/2023 JAQC Filament Health approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/17/2023)
  • 12/12/2023 KVSA Liquidation at ~$10.75 per share
  • 12/12/2023 BRD Liquidation at ~$10.74 per share
  • 12/12/2023 TBCP Liquidation at ~$10.22 per share
  • 12/13/2023 MBAC Liquidation at ~$10.60 per share
  • 12/13/2023 FRXB Liquidation at ~$10.45 per share
  • 12/13/2023 PRSR LeddarTech approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/31/2023)
  • 12/13/2023 NETC Vast Solar approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/18/2023)
  • 12/13/2023 BRLI Nukkleus approval meeting (liquidation deadline 12/23/2023)
  • 12/13/2023 DMYY Charter extension meeting
  • 12/14/2023 FXCO Liquidation deadline
  • 12/14/2023 KACL Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/16/2023)
  • 12/14/2023 LGST Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/15/2023)
  • 12/14/2023 CLAY Mobix Labs approval meeting
  • 12/14/2023 JAQC Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/17/2023)
  • 12/15/2023 TGAA Charter extension meeting
  • 12/15/2023 ACAB Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/19/2023)
  • 12/15/2023 USCT Charter amendment meeting
  • 12/15/2023 NUBI Charter extension meeting (liquidation deadline 12/15/2023)
  • 12/15/2023 BYTS Airship AI Holdings approval meeting
  • 12/17/2023 PRLH Liquidation deadline
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